Reproductive health industry prospects

This is a track where long-term growth is extremely certain, but short-term differentiation will continue to intensify. Players who are compliant, vertically segmented, and taking the inclusive route will be the first to come out, while sideline players with the mentality of making quick money basically have no room for survival. The current industry still faces three core contradictions: policy supervision needs to be refined, public perception needs to be corrected, and the supply side is uneven.

I was really shocked when I went to the county market in Zhejiang a while ago. The director of the reproductive department of the local maternal and child health hospital told me that the number of women under 25 who come to check for AMH (anti-Mullerian hormone, a core indicator for evaluating ovarian reserve) is now 40% more than three years ago. There are also many young men in their early 20s who take the initiative to check their sperm quality. They come not because they are not pregnant, but because they are preparing to fall in love or just get married. Last week, I bumped into a little girl who was born in 1998 at a milk tea shop in the business district. She clutched the test sheet and complained to her friends, "I just checked my ovarian function in advance to avoid panic when I want to have a baby later. My mother thought I had some strange disease." You see, the demand side is actually changing much faster than many people think.

However, not everyone is optimistic about this track. I know a VC friend who invests in consumer healthcare. He directly passed two reproductive health-related projects last year. The reasons given are also very solid: "The policy red lines in this industry are too tight. If you step on the side, everything will be lost. Moreover, the cognitive gap of users is too serious. There are still only a few people who are willing to pay for professional services. Most people either feel that reproductive health is a problem." Health means "curing infertility" and being too shy to speak out, or being brainwashed by IQ taxes such as "ovary maintenance" and "private rejuvenation" on the Internet. The cost of education is too high. "What he said is not unreasonable. Last year, Guangdong Province alone investigated and punished more than 200 lifestyle beauty institutions that carried out reproductive care projects in violation of regulations. Many "reproductive anti-aging" brands that had been popular for a while were collapsed immediately, and there was no room for improvement.

The arguments of the optimists are also strong enough. Since 2023, 16 provinces have introduced policies to include some items of assisted reproduction in medical insurance reimbursement, with the highest reimbursement ratio reaching 70%. Behind this is the long-term tilt of fertility support policies; on the other hand, there is the continued release of the demand side. In 2023, the sales of male reproductive care products on the Taobao platform alone will be The volume has increased by 127% year-on-year. The collection of notes related to "pre-pregnancy checkup guide", "polycystic treatment" and "egg freezing precautions" on Xiaohongshu easily reaches hundreds of thousands. The queue period for the nine-price HPV vaccine in many cities has been as long as two years. These are real gold and silver demands, not concepts created by speculation.

The two most controversial points in the industry now actually directly determine the trend in the next three years. One is the service boundary of assisted reproduction. Academic experts generally believe that public medical institutions should be the core of reproductive health services, and private institutions can only provide marginal supplementary services. Private institutions must be strictly restricted from providing medical services related to assisted reproduction to avoid excessive medical care and inflated prices. However, many entrepreneurs who are deeply involved in the industry believe that public reproductive departments are overcrowded, and queuing for three hours and two minutes to see a doctor is the norm. Users' needs for emotional counseling, long-term follow-up, and lifestyle intervention cannot be met at all. As long as they are operated in compliance with regulations, private institutions are of great value in providing these supplementary services. Another controversial point is the policy direction of egg freezing for unmarried women. At present, unmarried women are still not allowed to provide egg freezing services in China, but there are more and more voices calling for liberalization. Once the policy is loosened, the demand for the entire industry will at least double.

Let me tell you a real case around me. A doctor friend who worked in the reproductive department of a tertiary hospital for 10 years quit his job the year before last and opened an online studio specializing in lifestyle intervention for polycystic ovary syndrome. He does not prescribe random medicines and give people random injections, but provides dietary guidance, exercise planning and psychological counseling. The 299 yuan for three months of social services has now accumulated more than 20,000 paying users, and the repurchase rate can reach 40%. He told me that many users now do not need "medical treatment" at all, but are scared by rumors on the Internet, or have queued in the hospital for too long without being given clear instructions. As long as you are professional enough and don't cheat, you don't have to worry about customer sources. On the contrary, many of those who have spent tens of millions to open large-scale assisted reproductive institutions are now waiting for financing, and their lives are not as stable as his.

Of course, there are many examples of scams. There was a beauty industry chain owner who saw the popularity of reproductive health and followed the trend of the "private anti-aging" project. He charged tens of thousands a time, which was actually an ordinary massage plus essential oils that cost dozens of yuan. Last year, he was reported by consumers and was fined several million. The brand that had been in business for more than ten years was directly destroyed, without even a chance to turn around.

To be honest, this industry is not a hot spot that can make you rich overnight. After all, it involves multiple red lines such as medical care, ethics, and policies. It is impossible to become a listed company in half a year like live streaming. But it is a real slow industry. If you really concentrate on doing professional things, keep the bottom line of compliance, and really help users solve problems, the long-term returns will definitely not be bad; if you come in with the mentality of making quick money by cutting leeks, there is a high probability that the higher you stand, the harder you fall.